US September trade deficit edges down while three-month average widens

Port of Piraeus, Greece, May 31, 2026. Archival shipping photograph, not a scene of the events covered by the US September trade data. Photo: Aaaatu · CC BY-SA 4.0.

Exports and imports both rise as the deficit narrows slightly

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported on November 4 that goods and services exports totalled $321.5 billion in September 2026, up $5.8 billion from August. Imports rose $5.2 billion to $426.6 billion. With the increase in exports slightly exceeding that in imports, the trade deficit fell from a revised $105.7 billion to $105.0 billion, a decline of $0.7 billion, or about 0.7%. The goods deficit was $135.9 billion and the services surplus was $30.9 billion. These totals are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for price changes.¹

A smaller monthly deficit does not mean import demand weakened: both exports and imports increased. Capital goods and food were among the categories contributing to higher goods exports, while capital goods were an important part of the increase in goods imports. Trade statistics also involve balance-of-payments adjustments, so a customs-recorded change in one product cannot be equated directly with a change in the overall deficit. BEA specifically notes that the treatment of nonmonetary gold can produce different directions of change in goods deficits measured on different bases.¹

Three observation windows answer different questions

A longer window gives a different picture. The average deficit for July–September was $101.2 billion, up $11.3 billion from the three-month moving average ending in August. This compares two overlapping three-month windows, not the preceding nonoverlapping quarter or a previously published estimate. Meanwhile, the year-to-date deficit was $92.4 billion, or 12.2%, below the corresponding period of 2025. The monthly change, recent moving average and cumulative year-to-date figure answer different questions; none can substitute for the full picture.¹

September shows export growth temporarily outpacing import growth, but does not establish sustained improvement in the external imbalance. A narrower monthly deficit and a wider recent average can coexist, while a lower year-to-date deficit does not erase developments in the latest months. Subsequent monthly revisions, price effects and October data will be needed to judge whether the monthly improvement persists.

Source notes

1. 2026-11-04 · U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2026 · US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau. ↩ ↩² ↩³