IRENA chief expects slower capacity additions: renewable energy competition shifts toward grids and flexibility

On October 27, IRENA's head told Reuters he expected 2026 renewable capacity additions to fall below 2025, constrained by grids and trade barriers.¹ This is an assessment of a year still in progress, not completed global statistics.

Archival photograph: a wind farm in Kanyakumari, India. Wind farm Kanyakumari, photograph by Roshan Gracious; CC BY 4.0.

A record provides a benchmark, not this year's result

IRENA's Renewable capacity statistics 2026 records approximately 692 gigawatts of net renewable capacity additions worldwide in 2025, taking the year-end total to about 5,149 gigawatts. Solar added roughly 511 gigawatts and wind approximately 159 gigawatts.² Additions measure the change over a year, while the total measures the stock at year-end. The two are not interchangeable.

These figures are not electricity generation, either. For most countries and technologies, the statistics measure capacity installed and connected at year-end, rather than all projects awaiting grid connection. Capacity describes equipment's maximum net generating capability. How much electricity is actually produced and used over a period still depends on resource conditions, equipment operation and the power system's ability to accommodate it. Even substantial equipment additions may therefore leave a system unable to use all available output at certain times or locations. Conversely, better use of existing equipment can produce benefits beyond adding capacity.

Whether annual capacity additions decline answers only one question about the pace of expansion. It cannot establish that projects are deteriorating everywhere or that every technology is slowing simultaneously. Behind the annual total, changes across regions, technologies and project stages still need examination. An aggregate cannot erase those differences.

Generation and grids need to be ready on the same timetable

IRENA's research on power-system flexibility describes it as a set of capabilities for responding to changes in supply and demand while maintaining reliable operation, rather than simply adding one type of equipment. Generation, storage, demand-side adjustment and network connections can all contribute, but address different problems under different conditions.³

This helps explain constraints on capacity expansion. Completing turbines or solar modules marks only part of the work on the generation side; electricity must also reach places with demand at the appropriate time. Insufficient line capacity, incomplete connection works or mismatched dispatch arrangements can limit the conversion of equipment capability into deliverable power. Expanding manufacturing capacity does not automatically remove these system constraints.

For developers, project progress therefore cannot be assessed solely through equipment purchases and construction. Connection requirements, responsibility for the associated works, and alignment between commissioning dates and network readiness all influence when a project becomes an actual source of supply. This does not mean every delay comes from the grid. It means that planning generation and networks separately can underestimate their interdependence.

Storage is not a universal substitute: flexibility requires a mix

The research emphasizes that different resources provide flexibility over different timescales. Storage can shift electricity through time, demand-side measures can adjust some consumption periods, and interconnected grids can help coordinate supply and demand over a wider area.³ These are not freely interchangeable forms of the same capacity. A measure suited to short-term fluctuations cannot necessarily resolve every persistent or geographical constraint on its own.

Assessing proposals to strengthen grids or add storage therefore starts with identifying the bottleneck. If a connection remains incomplete, improving equipment efficiency may not solve the problem. If supply and demand occur at different times, adding generation alone may not be enough. Effective investment must match actual system needs, rather than simply chase additions of a particular type of equipment.

Market arrangements matter as well. Resources capable of providing flexibility need suitable incentives and ways to participate if they are to respond when the system needs them. IRENA considers technology, planning and market mechanisms together precisely because owning flexible equipment is not the same as obtaining reliable flexibility services.³

From the scale of expansion to the quality of delivery

This outlook reminds the industry to consider connections, dispatch and utilization alongside new capacity. It does not justify treating one bottleneck as evidence that the entire energy transition has stopped, or pre-empting the full-year statistics.

A more useful subsequent assessment would consider capacity changes together with connection progress, actual operation and the development of flexibility. That is how temporary changes in construction pace can be distinguished from local system constraints and more persistent investment problems. The next dimension of competition in renewable energy is not just how much can be built, but whether new capability becomes reliable, affordable electricity where and when it is needed.

Source notes

1. 2026-10-27 09:54 UTC · World to add less clean energy capacity this year, renewables agency chief says · Reuters. ↩

2. 2026-03 · Renewable capacity statistics 2026 · © IRENA 2026; adapted under the publication’s attribution-based reuse terms, excluding third-party material. ↩

3. 2026-01 · Flexibility for a secure and affordable power sector transformation · IRENA, Abu Dhabi; © IRENA 2026; adapted under the publication’s attribution-based reuse terms, excluding third-party material. ↩ ↩² ↩³