Lula wins Brazil’s presidential runoff: from first-round deficit to official victory

The outcome of Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff is no longer merely a media projection. The Superior Electoral Court’s (TSE) official results page marks Lula as mathematically elected. Its snapshot at 22:25:37 Brasília time on October 25 showed Lula with 64,252,284 votes, or 51.78% of valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro with 59,824,250, or 48.22%. At that point, 499,223 of 499,248 polling sections had been totalized, equivalent to 99.99%. The difference was 4,428,034 votes, or 3.56 percentage points using the page’s rounded percentages.¹

Archived portrait: Lula, August 8, 2026. Photograph: Ricardo Stuckert / Lula Oficial; original title: “08.08.2026 - FOTOS OFICIAIS”; source, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Two facts hold at the same time: the official system has established that the outcome cannot mathematically be reversed, while the totalization of all polling sections remains unfinished. Lula can therefore be reported as the runoff winner, but these vote totals should not be presented as the final closed count. Nor does the status on the results page mean that every subsequent legal procedure has been completed.

From trailing in the first round to leading in the runoff

The runoff reversed the first-round ranking. TSE’s complete first-round results show Flávio Bolsonaro with 56,104,503 votes, or 47.03%, and Lula with 53,879,538, or 45.16%. Neither secured more than half of valid votes, so both advanced to the second round. That first-round page covers all 499,248 polling sections and carries an update time of October 5 at 12:51:05.²

Comparing the first round with the runoff snapshot above, Lula gained approximately 10.37 million votes and Flávio approximately 3.72 million. This compares two public vote totals; it does not track individual voters. It cannot establish that all supporters of an eliminated candidate switched to one contender, or that all additional votes came from previous nonvoters. Regional results, surveys or other independent evidence would be needed to explain why choices changed.

The confirmed change is that a first-round lead did not automatically become a runoff victory. Brazil’s two-round system does not continue adding votes to the first-round candidates’ totals. Voters make a new choice between the two finalists. Article 77 of the Constitution provides that, when no candidate secures the required first-round majority, the two candidates with the most votes proceed to a second round, decided by a majority of valid votes.³

The denominator for 51.78% is valid votes, not the entire electorate

Reading the result also requires separating candidates’ votes, votes cast and registered voters. The runoff snapshot records 124,076,534 valid votes, 1,430,438 blank ballots and 2,723,197 invalid ballots, for a total of 128,230,169 votes cast. Lula’s 51.78% and Flávio’s 48.22% are shares of valid votes, not shares of all registered voters.¹

This does not change the rule for winning. Brazil’s Constitution explicitly excludes blank and invalid ballots when calculating the presidential election majority. Registration, participation and ballot validity answer different questions. Mixing them together can exaggerate or understate the breadth of either candidate’s support.³

Participation also changed. The complete first-round result shows turnout of 78.92%, compared with 80.78% in the runoff snapshot. The comparison indicates a higher participation rate within the coverage of the current count. However, a small number of runoff polling sections remain outstanding, so 80.78% should still be cited with its snapshot time, rather than prematurely described as final turnout. The increase in votes cast and the reversal of the candidates’ ranking are both important changes in this runoff; no single percentage captures the whole process.¹²

Publication timing changed during election night

A Supreme Court order continued voting only where unfinished at 17:00; receipt, tabulation and publication would resume after 19:00.⁴

The notice helps explain why information appeared in stages that evening. It was not a nationwide extension. Nor does a publication delay alone show that ballots were altered. On election night, voting still under way, records being totalized and an officially determined winner are distinct states. The official results page has now moved beyond a stage where only a lead can be reported, although the exact totals still have some finishing work ahead.

What follows a mathematical victory

The elected status on TSE’s results page addresses whether the count can establish a winner. Formal certification and the start of the next term have separate procedural arrangements. Article 270 of the 2026 election rules sets December 18 as the deadline for certification; the president of TSE signs the certificates for the president and vice president. That deadline does not mean the ceremony must take place on the last possible day, still less that certification has already occurred.⁵

TSE’s updated election calendar lists January 5, 2027, for the president’s and vice president’s inauguration. The October 25 runoff therefore determines the electoral mandate for the next term; it does not start that term immediately.⁶

Keeping these stages separate does not cast doubt on an established winner. It allows reporting to identify both who won and which procedures remain unfinished, without turning one official election-night status into a claim that the entire process is complete.

What the result establishes, and what it cannot yet answer

The clearest conclusion from this runoff is that Lula secured a majority of valid votes in a two-candidate contest and reversed his first-round position. The result also shows that almost half of valid votes went to his opponent. It establishes a winner, but cannot by itself explain how policies will be implemented in the next term, which voters changed their choices and why, or how other institutions will cooperate.

The most useful next reporting steps follow the evidence already available: wait for TSE to finish the remaining totalization, track the actual certification announcement, and assess the next term through specific policies and decisions. There is no need to fill those gaps with unverified victory speeches, statements by the opponent or market reactions. The major development of this night is already clear: the presidential runoff winner has been confirmed by the official results system. Other conclusions should wait for their own evidence.

Source notes

1. 2026-10-25 22:25:37 (Brasília time; 2026-10-26 01:25:37 UTC) · Resultados — Eleição Geral Ordinária 2026, Presidente, 2º turno · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official live-results snapshot. ↩ ↩² ↩³

2. 2026-10-05 12:51:05 (local time shown on the page) · Resultados — Eleição Geral Ordinária 2026, Presidente, 1º turno · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), all polling sections totalized. ↩ ↩²

3. Promulgated 1988-10-05; current consolidated text · Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil，art. 77 · Presidency of Brazil. ↩ ↩²

4. 2026-10-25 18:44, updated 19:02 · Esclarecimento sobre prorrogação da votação · TSE. ↩

5. 2026-02-26 · Resolução nº 23.751，art. 270 · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). ↩

6. Published 2026-03-06; updated 2026-10-14 · Eleições 2026: confira as principais datas do calendário eleitoral · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). ↩