Brazil heads to a presidential runoff as Flávio leads and Lula seeks a comeback

Brazil will hold a presidential runoff on October 25 between Liberal Party senator Flávio Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection. Near-complete results reported by the Brazilian Senate’s news service after the October 4 first round put them at approximately 47% and 45% of valid votes, respectively, below the threshold for an outright victory. The Associated Press also reported that the electoral court had confirmed the runoff pairing.¹²

AI-generated illustration of Brazil’s presidential election and runoff vote.

A first-round lead still needs a runoff majority

The Senate news service’s report, published at 11:02 p.m. local time on October 4, described a count covering 99.97% of electronic voting machines. The approximate 47% and 45% figures are a near-complete snapshot, not a statement of finally certified results. A lead of about two percentage points gives Flávio an advantage from the first round, but the presidency remains to be decided in another vote.¹

Brazil’s rules require an absolute majority of valid votes to win the presidency in the first round. If nobody achieves that, the two leading candidates advance. Blank and invalid ballots are excluded from valid votes, so a candidate’s percentage should not be read as a share of all registered voters. The Superior Electoral Court declares the elected president and vice president; formally issuing their electoral credentials is a separate procedure.³⁴

Familiar political camps, a new pairing

Flávio, 45, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a senator for Rio de Janeiro. This is his first presidential bid. Lula, 80, is serving his third presidential term and seeking election to a fourth. Despite their different political careers, the contest continues the longstanding rivalry between the Workers’ Party and the Bolsonaro camp.¹

The electoral court approved 12 presidential and vice-presidential tickets in September. Lula is again running with Geraldo Alckmin, while Flávio’s running mate is Alfredo Gaspar. The runoff reduces that field to two choices and makes people who supported other candidates in the first round an important audience for both campaigns.⁵

Adding the leading candidates’ approximate shares leaves about 8% of valid votes for the rest of the field. That is larger than the first-round gap, so where those voters turn could change the contest. Endorsements by candidates or parties, however, do not ensure that their supporters switch together. Simply assigning another candidate’s votes to one finalist cannot reliably predict the runoff.

The Senate report put first-round turnout at roughly 79%, meaning about one in five registered voters did not cast a ballot. That suggests the next round is also a contest to bring voters to the polls again, alongside the effort to attract other candidates’ supporters. First-round nonvoters may participate, and those who already voted may change their choice. The total pool of valid votes cannot be assumed to stay fixed.¹

Household costs will test campaign promises

Reuters identified living costs, household debt and public security as important campaign issues and reported that both leading candidates had skipped major televised debates.⁶ For voters still weighing their choices, more concrete policy comparisons during the remaining campaign would provide more useful information than repeated political labels.

The questions to watch are how each campaign proposes to reduce household burdens, where the money would come from, and how public-security commitments would be implemented. Fiscal choices, implementation capacity and public services involve trade-offs; individual promises cannot be assessed in isolation from those conditions. Near-complete first-round results map existing support. They do not yet establish who can assemble a runoff majority, or automatically give either side the ability to deliver its entire programme.

Source notes

1. 2026-10-04 · Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will contest the presidential election’s second round · Agência Senado; published at 11:02 p.m., citing 99.97% of voting machines counted. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

2. 2026-10-04 · Brazil heads to a runoff election after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to garner a majority of votes · Associated Press. ↩

3. 2021-12-23 · Resolution No. 23,677 of December 16, 2021 · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court; presidential election and runoff rules. Current consolidated text accessed 2026-10-05. ↩

4. 2026-09-25 · Inside the elections: how the electoral authorities total votes and proclaim results · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. ↩

5. 2026-09-11 · Twelve candidacies are contesting the presidency · Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. ↩

6. 2026-10-04 · Bolsonaro beats expectations in Brazil presidential vote, faces Lula in runoff · Reuters, republished by MarketScreener; updated at 8:39 p.m. EDT. ↩